BRUSSLES — It was a scene that may have provoked outrage in Brussels.
Narendra Modi, the prime minister of India, joyfully holding palms with Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia and chief promoter of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, whereas attending the annual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Group (SCO).
The 2-day assembly in Tianjin, China, was rigorously choreographed to painting an alternative choice to the Western rules-based order – a declaration of intent that its host, President Xi Jinping, underlined when he joined within the Modi-Putin handshake.
However as a substitute of condemnations and recriminations, Brussels selected conciliation.
On Thursday, just some days after the carefully watched gathering, Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Fee, and António Costa, the president of the European Council, held a joint cellphone name with Modi and “warmly” welcomed his engagement with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
“India has an vital function to play in bringing Russia to (an) finish its conflict of aggression and serving to create a path in direction of peace,” they stated in an announcement freed from reproach.
“Trying forward, we plan to agree on a joint strategic agenda on the subsequent EU–India summit, as early as attainable in 2026.”
At a time of violent geopolitical shifts which have undercut previous alliances, eroded binding ideas and deepened existential nervousness, the European Union is in a race towards time to seek out new companions to cushion the influence of such pressures.
India, the world’s most populous nation, has emerged as essentially the most fascinating candidate.
On paper, India ticks all of the packing containers: a fast-growing financial system, a younger labour drive, a burgeoning high-tech sector, a strategic geographic location and a democratic system.
Commerce is already booming: the €120 billion price of products traded between the EU and India final yr outstrips the $132 billion (€113 billion) in items traded between america and India. An estimated 6,000 European firms function in India, supporting 2 million direct and 6 million oblique jobs.
Bilateral cooperation is multifaceted, masking local weather change, inexperienced power, maritime safety, pure disasters and pupil alternate, amongst different areas. India is the second nation, after the US, to ascertain a Commerce and Know-how Council (TTC) with the bloc.
However there’s way more to be achieved.
Officers on either side see bilateral relations as an untapped supply of mutual prosperity and safety. Now, amid a dizzying shake-up of worldwide dynamics, they really feel the time has come to roll up their sleeves and mine the connection additional.
“Over the past 30 years, we’ve achieved rather a lot collectively. However in fact, we’ve solely been scratching the floor of the potential that’s there,” von der Leyen stated in February throughout her official go to to New Delhi.
The go to marked the primary abroad journey of her second mandate. Escorted by the whole Faculty of Commissioners, the message was unequivocal.
“The EU and India have the potential to be one of many defining partnerships of this century,” she declared. “And it’s why it will likely be a cornerstone of Europe’s overseas coverage within the years and a long time to come back.”
Modi responded in form. “This journey is the most important catalyst that may translate our ambition into motion,” he instructed von der Leyen.
On the finish of the go to, the 2 leaders dedicated to reaching a free commerce deal, a coveted however elusive aim, by the top of the yr.
Von der Leyen’s spoke in regards to the should be “pragmatic” in diplomacy, highlighting widespread pursuits and priorities as a substitute of dwelling on the disagreements that triggered friction prior to now, akin to India’s protectionist practices and the EU’s carbon tax.
This perspective helps explains why Brussels has chosen to tolerate, quite than harshly denounce, India’s continued ties with Russia, its adversary.
The general public remedy contrasts with that of China, which the EU has repeatedly accused of being the “key enabler” of Putin’s conflict. China, it should be famous, is an autocracy that has a number of open fronts with the West, together with unfair subsidies, mental property theft, disinformation campaigns, cyberattacks and human rights violations.
India has kept away from pursuing this confrontational strategy and opted as a substitute for an inclusive, multi-vector overseas coverage, which has allowed the nation to forge disparate alliances all over the world, from the Quad, sitting alongside the US, Japan and Australia, to the BRICS, sitting alongside China, Russia, Brazil and South Africa.
“India’s relationship with Moscow relies upon an extended custom of geopolitical belief that dates again to the Chilly Warfare period and upon a robust dependence on Russian navy tools. The EU has accepted this actuality for a few years,” stated Jan Luykx, a senior affiliate fellow on the Egmont Institute and former Belgian ambassador to India.
“China, alternatively, sees Russia as a key ally in its competitors with the West. With out the financial assist from China, Russia would have actual difficulties in pursuing its conflict towards Ukraine.”
Brushing divergences apart, Brussels is eager to safe a spot as one in all New Delhi’s privileged companions. And the timing appears propitious: simply as Europeans are betting laborious on nearer ties with India, People seem like tearing theirs aside.
In a dramatic reversal of US coverage, Donald Trump has turned his fireplace towards India, imposing 50% tariffs on the nation in response to its multi-billion purchases of Russian oil. Indians have been outraged by the transfer, which they are saying is unjustified and capricious, on condition that Trump has didn’t do the identical with the biggest shopper: China.
Trump’s oft-repeated declare that he mediated a ceasefire between India and Pakistan to finish their temporary armed battle in Could has been rebutted by Indian officers, who insist it was their navy would possibly that led to the fast decision. The truth that Trump agreed to host Pakistan’s military chief, Asim Munir, for an unprecedented lunch on the White Home triggered additional consternation. In response to an insider account by the New York Occasions, Indians are cautious of placing Modi on the cellphone with Trump, fearing a whole fallout.
The sharp deterioration has unravelled the work painstakingly achieved by earlier US administrations, each Republican and Democratic, which moved step by step nearer to India as a solution to counteract China’s increasing sphere of affect within the Indo-Pacific.
Europeans, who share the evaluation about India’s geopolitical worth, are actually watching their diplomatic overtures achieve a brand new appreciation because of Trump’s scorched-earth ways. However whether or not the bloc can seize the chance and switch the collapse of US-India relations into the rise of EU-India relations stays to be seen.
Brussels has typically struggled to translate its huge phrases into huge motion, notably in relation to overseas coverage, the place divergent pursuits of member states can stymie collective decision-making and ship combined messages.
Up to now, everyone seems to be on the identical web page.
Shairee Malhotra, a deputy director on the Observer Analysis Basis (ORF), believes the EU and India have discovered to be extra versatile and sensible in direction of one another and think about their relations by the broader lens of geopolitics, quite than by a “microscopic sector-by-sector evaluation” that dangers bogging down talks.
New Delhi, with its push to draw overseas buyers beneath the “Make in India” initiative, represents a lovely companion to de-risk from China and soften the blow of Trump’s tariffs, which have hit the export-oriented bloc with a painful 15% responsibility.
“Most significantly, what Brussels and New Delhi supply one another is stability and related broader targets and alignments, though the best way to reach at these could also be paved with some friction,” Malhotra instructed Euronews, calling the potential “huge”.
“If present unpredictable and unstable tendencies in relations with the US proceed, this can certainly catalyse ahead momentum in EU-India ties.” — Euronews
