After agency growth final 12 months, seaborne commerce volumes are forecast to rise by simply 0.5 per cent in 2025, the slowest tempo in years, based on the company’s Evaluation of Maritime Transport 2025, launched in Geneva.
The slowdown comes as geopolitical tensions, new commerce limitations and local weather pressures reshape delivery routes, push up prices and expose vulnerabilities within the international financial system.
“The transitions forward – to zero carbon, to digital methods, to new commerce routes – have to be simply transitions,” mentioned UNCTAD Secretary-Common Rebeca Grynspan. “They need to empower, not exclude. They need to construct resilience, not deepen vulnerability.”
Routes in flux, prices rising
Delivery carries over 80 per cent of the world’s merchandise for export and import, making it a crucial barometer of worldwide commerce.
UNCTAD reported that rerouting attributable to crises within the Crimson Sea in 2024 and persevering with tensions close to the Strait of Hormuz have compelled ships onto longer journeys, including delays and prices.
On the Geneva launch, Regina Asariotis, Chief of UNCTAD’s Commerce Logistics Department, warned that weak economies are paying the heaviest worth:
“The worldwide surroundings has change into extra advanced. Geopolitical tensions are forcing pricey reroutings, tariffs are disrupting commerce flows, and freight charges are excessive and risky.
Small island creating States, least developed nations, and internet meals importing nations are essentially the most weak, as a result of larger freight prices shortly translate into dearer imports and meals insecurity.”
Ports beneath stress
World ports are combating congestion, longer ready instances and the stress to modernise. UNCTAD highlighted the pressing have to spend money on digital methods equivalent to maritime single home windows and port neighborhood platforms to chop prices and delays.
However many creating nations proceed to lag behind in digitalisation. With cyber threats on the rise, the report warns that cybersecurity has change into a crucial precedence for maritime logistics.
Local weather problem
The delivery business’s greenhouse fuel emissions rose by 5 per cent in 2024, the report mentioned. But solely eight per cent of the world fleet’s tonnage is presently geared up to make use of various fuels.
The Worldwide Maritime Group will contemplate a Web-Zero Framework in October, together with a worldwide gasoline normal and carbon pricing mechanism. UNCTAD says clear regulatory alerts, fleet renewal and new gasoline infrastructure are important to cut back emissions.
Human value at sea
Past commerce flows and emissions, the report confused the human toll. Seafarer abandonment instances reached a file excessive in 2024, leaving crews stranded with out pay or help.
Amendments to the Maritime Labour Conference coming into into power in 2027 will strengthen rights to repatriation and shore depart, however UNCTAD confused that efficient enforcement is important.
Coverage priorities
The evaluation requires governments and business to work collectively on:
- Steady commerce insurance policies to cut back uncertainty and restore confidence in provide chains;
- Funding in sustainable, inexperienced and resilient port and delivery infrastructure;
- Quicker digitalisation and stronger cybersecurity;
- Fleet renewal and cleaner fuels; and
- Help for weak economies to mitigate larger prices.
“Persistent excessive transport prices threat hitting creating nations the toughest,” Ms. Grynspan mentioned. “Maritime transport have to be resilient, inclusive and sustainable if we’re to climate the turbulent waters forward.”
